Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump said (external link) he had a "big decision" coming up regarding the Iranian regime:
"Do I want to go in and obliterate them or not? [...] Anything can happen with me."
This is not the first time (external link) he has spoken of such a threat. But it comes at a very critical moment. A war he once hoped to bring to a swift conclusion is now in its seventh month and threatens to engulf more of the region.
Over the weekend, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen said (external link) they had attacked "sensitive sites" in the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh, using missiles and drones.
It is an escalation that could put Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Turkey (external link) and Pakistan—known as the "Mecca pact (external link)"—to its first serious test.
For Trump, failing to end this conflict one way or another could also seriously jeopardize the remainder of his term and the United States' standing in the world.
Why Trump's options are narrowing
Several issues have brought the president to this point. Consumers in the US and across the globe continue to suffer from the intensified energy and economic impacts of the conflict.
Also over the weekend, Iran reportedly presented its latest set of conditions (external link) to end the war with the US. These included ending the war on all fronts, unfreezing Iran's frozen funds, and lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports.
The US has yet to respond to these conditions. Should it find them acceptable, the way would open for a resumption of negotiations, although prospects seem dim that a negotiated settlement would result, at the very least, in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon.
Iran has felt the pain as well. US military and economic pressure to end the war has proven very costly for the Iranian people, in both human and material terms.
Yet this has not deterred Iran's Islamic government from mounting a robust defense, destroying American bases in the region, continuing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and defying the US blockade of Iranian ports.
The war continues to widen
The conflict continued to widen first to Lebanon, where Iran's ally, Hezbollah, is locked in confrontation with an expansionist Israel, resulting in heavy damage to the country and its people. Now, it has extended to new fronts in Yemen.
Fighting the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (Yemen's internationally recognized government) as well as Saudi Arabia, the Iranian-backed Houthis have made major strategic territorial gains (external link) over the past two weeks.
The Houthis occupy a large portion of western Yemen and a swath of the southern part of the country, including the capital, Sana'a. Their territory borders the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, a conduit for 10 to 12% of global maritime trade.
They have tightly gripped traffic through the strait, struck Saudi vessels, and targeted Saudi oil and infrastructure facilities (external link).
During the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, up to 70% (external link) of Saudi oil exports were transported from the Abqaiq fields in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea for export to the outside world.
This pipeline is now damaged and shut down (external link). Its repair could take weeks, driving up oil prices worldwide with a massive impact on the global economy.
A new security pact faces its first test
Meanwhile, the US-allied Arab Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates) are growing disillusioned with the Trump administration.
They have suffered for hosting American bases and have learned the hard way that they can no longer rely on the US as their security guarantor.
For oil-rich Saudi Arabia, the search for alternative arrangements gave rise to the so-called Mecca pact (external link), signed and brought into force in August.
It partners Saudi Arabia with two predominantly anti-Israel Sunni Muslim states: Turkey, a NATO member with the alliance's second-largest military, and Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world.
Although no other Arab state has joined the pact at this stage, Shiite-majority Iran reportedly welcomed it (external link) and was even invited to join (external link) the pact (although Iran has denied (external link) receiving a formal invitation).
The Houthis' operations, however, have confronted the Mecca pact with the first test of its viability. Turkey and Pakistan have voiced support for Saudi Arabia's defense, but have not yet entered the conflict, possibly deeming (external link) that the Houthis' actions do not constitute state aggression against the kingdom.
Over the weekend, however, Turkey's foreign minister indicated (external link) that the country could help with Saudi Arabia's military needs.
Turkey and Pakistan have sought to persuade Tehran to rein in the Houthis. Both countries share borders with Iran and maintain good working relations with it.
Ankara has championed the unity of the Muslim world and Islamabad has acted as a mediator between Tehran and Washington. These are imperatives they cannot easily disregard when invoking the Mecca pact.
Why the US is reluctant to get involved
Similarly, President Trump has so far rejected (external link) a Saudi request for strikes against the Houthis, as he may have begun to recognize the limits of American power.
He has been hesitant to embroil the US in another front, which has further eroded Riyadh's faith in US reliability. US Vice President JD Vance said Washington is in control of the matter, signaling mediation (external link) between the Houthis and Riyadh. And the Houthis have stated (external link) that they will not attack US vessels in the Red Sea.
Trump has been eager to see an end to the conflict and a more stable Middle East, saying (external link) that the war will end immediately after the US midterm elections in November. He has not said how this will happen, presumably depending on his pending decision.
However, hardliners in Iran’s leadership, influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, seem disinclined to let Trump off easily. The country has prepared for a potential escalation (external link) rather than de-escalation, regardless of its crippling financial and economic impact on Iran.
The risk here is that, once the midterm elections are over, Trump may decide (external link) to escalate the conflict as well, unless both houses of Congress are dominated by Democrats and capable of stopping him under the US War Powers Act. At this point, there is no certainty about where the current crisis will lead the Middle East and the world.
This article was originally published by Amin Saikal in The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Portuguese translation by Revista Relações Exteriores. Access the original article (external link)